Research

Working Paper

Reticence or Theatrics? Grassroots Cadre Presence and Political Response in Surveys (View)

Abstract: Survey studies struggle to eliminate response bias, yet they frequently neglect the impact of the interview context. This article investigates the influence of grassroots cadre presence in surveys on self-censorship and social desirability bias. Using the China Family Panel Studies from 2012 to 2018 (N≈100,000), I demonstrate that the presence of grassroots cadres can induce social desirability bias rather than self-censorship in responses to political queries, regardless of whether they are framed positively or negatively. Specifically, treated individuals tend to over-report their trust in grassroots officeholders and local government while under-reporting experiences of unfairness, unreasonable treatment, and conflict with authorities. Novelly, I perform randomized controlled trial simulations (N≈6,000) utilizing Retrieval-Augmented Generation and In-Context Learning, alongside implicit association tests (N≈100), and findings indicate that social desirability bias is driven by authoritarian cognition (risk perception, fear-based anxiety, suppositional insight, and avoidant tendencies), consistent with the inference that fear of perceived or actual sanctions plays a crucial role in shaping responses.

Figure: The Effect of Cadre Presence on Authoritarian Cognition

The Long Shadow of Heroes: Can Martyrs’ Cemeteries Curb Street and Neighborhood Crime?

Abstract: This study examines whether the establishment of martyrs’ cemetery parks influences street and neighborhood crime in adjacent areas. By integrating approximately 2 million spatiotemporal crime records (2000–2019) with data on 585 martyrs’ cemetery parks (2013-2022) and employing a Staggered Difference-in-Differences (SDID) design, this paper finds that the construction of such parks leads to a significant reduction in both the number and ratio of crimes within a radius of 1 to 5 kilometers. However, the distance between these parks and crime venues decreases within 1–2 kilometers radius, suggesting that these adjacent and less populated areas may become more susceptible to illegal activities. The findings illustrate how patriotic education, manifested through physical commemorative spaces, can reshape public attitudes and social conduct.

Figure: The Effect of Martyrs’ Cemetery parks on Ratio of Crimes

*The Ratio of Crimes = Num. of Crimes within R km / Num. of Crimes within 2R km * 100

Beyond Propaganda: Can Natural Disasters Incubate National Allegiance?

Abstract: This study investigates whether individuals who experienced severe natural disasters during childhood or adolescence exhibit a greater propensity to enlist in the military in adulthood. Drawing on data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (2012–2018) and employing a Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) design, the analysis reveals that exposure to major disasters—such as floods and earthquakes—significantly increases the likelihood of military enlistment. After eliminating alternative explanations, including pro-social behavioral shifts or compensatory labor market motivations, the findings suggest that state-led disaster relief efforts strengthen individuals’ national allegiance, which eventually encourages military participation.

Figure: RDiT Estimate on the Likelihood of Military Enlistment

*Individuals who did NOT experience vs. those experienced

Public Opinions Towards Poverty Policy: A Discourse Network Analysis (with Chenhong Peng and Sijia Li)